Dick Spring Unification Referendum 2025: Ireland ‘Not Ready’ – 40th Anniversary of Anglo-Irish Agreement Reflections

In this comprehensive  analysis, we unpack Spring’s intervention amid rising Irish unity polls 2025 (34% NI support, up from 27% in 2022; 64% in ROI).

From Garret FitzGerald’s Thatcher persuasion to Michael Lillis’ “crazy” Grand Canal proposals, Sean Donlon’s secret US briefings, and Hilary Benn’s “way off in the distance” echo – this is the full story of the 1985 Agreement’s legacy and why border poll 2025 remains a distant dream.

Dick Spring’s 2025 Warning: ‘Not Ready’ for Unification Referendum

At the Queen’s University Belfast conference marking the Anglo-Irish Agreement’s 40th anniversary, Dick Spring – Labour leader (1982–1997), Tánaiste (1982–1987, 1993–1997), and Foreign Affairs Minister (1993–1997) – cut through the rhetoric:

“I don’t think that we’re ready for a referendum [on unification], or for debates. There’s an awful lot of work to be done. It’s a long way away.”

Spring’s pragmatism echoes Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn’s recent statement: a border poll is “way off in the distance,” with no “appetite for constitutional change.”

Spring’s Core Message: Economic Ties First

“Let us make Northern Ireland work. Let us develop relationships with the South, economic relationships in particular. We can benefit, North and South can benefit tremendously co-operating on economic matters. But let’s not try to overstretch.”

This “one fence at a time” approach prioritizes the Shared Island initiative – €1.5bn invested since 2020 in cross-border projects like the A5 road and Ulster Canal.

The Anglo-Irish Agreement 1985: 40 Years of Silencing the Guns

Signed November 15, 1985 by Garret FitzGerald and Margaret Thatcher, the Agreement was revolutionary: it gave Dublin a formal voice in Northern Ireland for the first time, establishing the Anglo-Irish Intergovernmental Conference.

Key impacts:

• Nationalist empowerment: Recognized Irish government’s interest in NI affairs
• Unionist backlash: Led to mass protests, but forced dialogue
• Paved way for Good Friday Agreement (1998)
• Silenced guns: IRA ceasefire in 1994, permanent in 1997

“The most remarkable thing that has happened is that the guns are silenced.”

– Dick Spring, 2025

‘Jump One Fence at a Time’: Spring’s Pragmatic Advice for North-South Relations

Spring’s philosophy: Build trust incrementally. Focus on:

1. Democratic politics: Restore Stormont fully
2. Economic cooperation: All-island economy worth €100bn+
3. Cultural ties: Shared language, sports, tourism
4. Defer poll: Until 60%+ support (current NI: 34%)

This aligns with Micheál Martin’s “Shared Island” – €500m for 2025 cross-border infrastructure.

Irish Unity Polls 2025: 34% NI Support, 64% ROI – But No Majority Yet

Latest data (ARINS/Irish Times, Feb 2025):

• Northern Ireland: 34% for unity (up from 27% in 2022); 48% remain UK
• Republic of Ireland: 64% for unification; 17% against
• Protestants: 82% against; but 29% would “happily accept” loss
• Catholics: 63% for (up from 55%)

LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph (Feb 2025): 41% unity vs. 48% UK – Brexit boosted support by 28 points since 2013.

‘Loser’s Consent’ Rising

Key trend: Northern Protestants’ acceptance of defeat has grown – from 20% “happy” in 2022 to 29% in 2025. Voter education could tip the scales by 2030.

Garret FitzGerald vs. Margaret Thatcher: Persuasion Over Cromwell

Spring credits FitzGerald: “It probably couldn’t have happened without Garret. He had huge powers of persuasion with Margaret Thatcher. She was very reluctant.”

Thatcher’s initial ideas: Forced population transfers of Catholics/Protestants – echoing Cromwell’s 17th-century ethnic cleansing.

“Somebody mentioned Cromwell… that that had been done before, not very successfully.”

– Dick Spring, 2025

FitzGerald’s genius: Frame the Agreement as anti-IRA security for Thatcher, while empowering nationalists.

Michael Lillis’ Grand Canal Walk: The ‘Crazy’ Ideas That Shook London

In 1983, Irish diplomat Michael Lillis walked the Grand Canal with British counterpart David Goodall, proposing:

• Gardaí and Irish soldiers in NI
• ROI judges for nationalist cases

Lillis: “My ideas were seen as ‘crazy’ by London… I did that deliberately to wake the British up.”

It worked: Shocked into dialogue, leading to the 1985 Agreement.

US Role: Tip O’Neill, Ted Kennedy, and Reagan’s Monaghan Honeymooner

Sean Donlon secretly briefed:

• Tip O’Neill (House Speaker)
• Ted Kennedy (Senator)
• Bill Clark (Reagan’s old California friend)

Clark – no Irish blood, but honeymooned in Monaghan – became a key ally. He bought a Malahide house, kept horses, and flew his plane from Dublin Airport.

“That gave him roots in Ireland.”

– Sean Donlon, 2025

US pressure tipped Thatcher: Reagan’s support was pivotal.

Hilary Benn Echoes Spring: Border Poll ‘Way Off in the Distance’

NI Secretary Hilary Benn (2024–present): “No one is arguing that there is an appetite for constitutional change.”

Criteria (Good Friday Agreement): Secretary calls poll if majority likely for unity. Current polls: No.

Shared Island Strategy: Economic Ties Before Political Leaps

Launched 2020 by Micheál Martin, focuses on:

• Infrastructure: €1bn for roads, rail (e.g., Narrow Water Bridge)
• Health/education: Cross-border cancer care, university exchanges
• Business: All-island FDI hub potential (€200bn GDP boost by 2030)

Spring: “North and South can benefit tremendously co-operating on economic matters.”

Expert Views: Lillis, Dorr, Donlon on the Agreement’s Enduring Impact

At Queen’s:

• Michael Lillis: “The Agreement gave Dublin a voice – denied for years by London.”
• Noel Dorr: Ambassador to UK; navigated Thatcher’s resistance.
• Sean Donlon: US briefings secured Reagan’s buy-in.

Collective: The Agreement was “shocking” but essential – a foundation for peace.

Path to Unity? Voter Education, Loser’s Consent, and 2030+ Timeline

ARINS experts: Education campaigns needed to build consent. At current trends (7% NI rise/3 years), majority by 2031. But Spring: Focus on making NI work first.