On November 11, 2025 – the eve of the 40th anniversary of the Anglo-Irish Agreement – former Tánaiste Dick Spring delivered a sobering message at Queen’s University Belfast: the island of Ireland is “not ready” for a unification referendum, and rushing one would be an “overstretch.” Urging leaders to “jump one fence at a time,” Spring celebrated the Agreement’s greatest gift: “the guns are silenced.”
In this comprehensive analysis, we unpack Spring’s intervention amid rising Irish unity polls 2025 (34% NI support, up from 27% in 2022; 64% in ROI).
From Garret FitzGerald’s Thatcher persuasion to Michael Lillis’ “crazy” Grand Canal proposals, Sean Donlon’s secret US briefings, and Hilary Benn’s “way off in the distance” echo – this is the full story of the 1985 Agreement’s legacy and why border poll 2025 remains a distant dream.
Dick Spring’s 2025 Warning: ‘Not Ready’ for Unification Referendum
At the Queen’s University Belfast conference marking the Anglo-Irish Agreement’s 40th anniversary, Dick Spring – Labour leader (1982–1997), Tánaiste (1982–1987, 1993–1997), and Foreign Affairs Minister (1993–1997) – cut through the rhetoric:
“I don’t think that we’re ready for a referendum [on unification], or for debates. There’s an awful lot of work to be done. It’s a long way away.”
Spring’s pragmatism echoes Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn’s recent statement: a border poll is “way off in the distance,” with no “appetite for constitutional change.”
Spring’s Core Message: Economic Ties First
“Let us make Northern Ireland work. Let us develop relationships with the South, economic relationships in particular. We can benefit, North and South can benefit tremendously co-operating on economic matters. But let’s not try to overstretch.”
This “one fence at a time” approach prioritizes the Shared Island initiative – €1.5bn invested since 2020 in cross-border projects like the A5 road and Ulster Canal.
The Anglo-Irish Agreement 1985: 40 Years of Silencing the Guns
Signed November 15, 1985 by Garret FitzGerald and Margaret Thatcher, the Agreement was revolutionary: it gave Dublin a formal voice in Northern Ireland for the first time, establishing the Anglo-Irish Intergovernmental Conference.
Key impacts:
- Nationalist empowerment: Recognized Irish government’s interest in NI affairs
- Unionist backlash: Led to mass protests, but forced dialogue
- Paved way for Good Friday Agreement (1998)
- Silenced guns: IRA ceasefire in 1994, permanent in 1997
“The most remarkable thing that has happened is that the guns are silenced.”
– Dick Spring, 2025
| Milestone | Date | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Anglo-Irish Agreement Signed | Nov 15, 1985 | Dublin’s consultative role established |
| Downing Street Declaration | Dec 15, 1993 | Spring’s co-authorship; mutual recognition |
| Good Friday Agreement | Apr 10, 1998 | Power-sharing; consent principle |
| 40th Anniversary | Nov 11, 2025 | Spring’s ‘not ready’ call |
‘Jump One Fence at a Time’: Spring’s Pragmatic Advice for North-South Relations
Spring’s philosophy: Build trust incrementally. Focus on:
- Democratic politics: Restore Stormont fully
- Economic cooperation: All-island economy worth €100bn+
- Cultural ties: Shared language, sports, tourism
- Defer poll: Until 60%+ support (current NI: 34%)
This aligns with Micheál Martin’s “Shared Island” – €500m for 2025 cross-border infrastructure.
Irish Unity Polls 2025: 34% NI Support, 64% ROI – But No Majority Yet
Latest data (ARINS/Irish Times, Feb 2025):
- Northern Ireland: 34% for unity (up from 27% in 2022); 48% remain UK
- Republic of Ireland: 64% for unification; 17% against
- Protestants: 82% against; but 29% would “happily accept” loss
- Catholics: 63% for (up from 55%)
LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph (Feb 2025): 41% unity vs. 48% UK – Brexit boosted support by 28 points since 2013.
‘Loser’s Consent’ Rising
Key trend: Northern Protestants’ acceptance of defeat has grown – from 20% “happy” in 2022 to 29% in 2025. Voter education could tip the scales by 2030.
Garret FitzGerald vs. Margaret Thatcher: Persuasion Over Cromwell
Spring credits FitzGerald: “It probably couldn’t have happened without Garret. He had huge powers of persuasion with Margaret Thatcher. She was very reluctant.”
Thatcher’s initial ideas: Forced population transfers of Catholics/Protestants – echoing Cromwell’s 17th-century ethnic cleansing.
“Somebody mentioned Cromwell… that that had been done before, not very successfully.”
– Dick Spring, 2025
FitzGerald’s genius: Frame the Agreement as anti-IRA security for Thatcher, while empowering nationalists.
Michael Lillis’ Grand Canal Walk: The ‘Crazy’ Ideas That Shook London
In 1983, Irish diplomat Michael Lillis walked the Grand Canal with British counterpart David Goodall, proposing:
- Gardaí and Irish soldiers in NI
- ROI judges for nationalist cases
Lillis: “My ideas were seen as ‘crazy’ by London… I did that deliberately to wake the British up.”
It worked: Shocked into dialogue, leading to the 1985 Agreement.
US Role: Tip O’Neill, Ted Kennedy, and Reagan’s Monaghan Honeymooner
Sean Donlon secretly briefed:
- Tip O’Neill (House Speaker)
- Ted Kennedy (Senator)
- Bill Clark (Reagan’s old California friend)
Clark – no Irish blood, but honeymooned in Monaghan – became a key ally. He bought a Malahide house, kept horses, and flew his plane from Dublin Airport.
“That gave him roots in Ireland.”
– Sean Donlon, 2025
US pressure tipped Thatcher: Reagan’s support was pivotal.
Hilary Benn Echoes Spring: Border Poll ‘Way Off in the Distance’
NI Secretary Hilary Benn (2024–present): “No one is arguing that there is an appetite for constitutional change.”
Criteria (Good Friday Agreement): Secretary calls poll if majority likely for unity. Current polls: No.
Shared Island Strategy: Economic Ties Before Political Leaps
Launched 2020 by Micheál Martin, focuses on:
- Infrastructure: €1bn for roads, rail (e.g., Narrow Water Bridge)
- Health/education: Cross-border cancer care, university exchanges
- Business: All-island FDI hub potential (€200bn GDP boost by 2030)
Spring: “North and South can benefit tremendously co-operating on economic matters.”
Expert Views: Lillis, Dorr, Donlon on the Agreement’s Enduring Impact
At Queen’s:
- Michael Lillis: “The Agreement gave Dublin a voice – denied for years by London.”
- Noel Dorr: Ambassador to UK; navigated Thatcher’s resistance.
- Sean Donlon: US briefings secured Reagan’s buy-in.
Collective: The Agreement was “shocking” but essential – a foundation for peace.
Path to Unity? Voter Education, Loser’s Consent, and 2030+ Timeline
ARINS experts: Education campaigns needed to build consent. At current trends (7% NI rise/3 years), majority by 2031. But Spring: Focus on making NI work first.
FAQ: Dick Spring, Anglo-Irish Agreement, Unification Polls 2025
Is Ireland ready for a unification referendum in 2025?
No – Dick Spring says it’s an “overstretch”; polls show 34% NI support vs. 48% for UK.
What is the Anglo-Irish Agreement’s legacy?
Signed 1985; gave Dublin a voice in NI, silenced guns, paved way for Good Friday.
Latest Irish unity polls 2025?
NI: 34% yes (up 7% since 2022); ROI: 64% yes. Protestants: 29% would accept defeat.
Who was key to the 1985 Agreement?
Garret FitzGerald persuaded Thatcher; Michael Lillis’ ‘crazy’ ideas shocked London.
When might a border poll happen?
Hilary Benn: ‘Way off’; Spring: ‘Long way away’ – focus on economics first.
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